Races Tighten Up and Down the Ballot

President

The new Hillary Clinton email revelation has ushered in a sense of doubt surrounding the final week of this unique presidential campaign.  In fact, the latest four polls taken between the October 26-31 period find the race reverting back to within the polling margin of error.

The ABC News/Washington Post rolling tracking survey (10/27-30; 1,167 US likely voters) reports Clinton’s lead dropping to only one percentage point, 46-45%.  The Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll (10/26-31; 1,018 US likely voters) also sees a one-point separation between the two candidates.  Rasmussen Reports (10/27-31; 1,500 US likely voters) projects a flat tie, 44-44%.  Finally, the Lucid/New Orleans Times Picayune (10/29-31; 866 US likely voters) forecasts a two-point spread, 42-40%.  This portends quite a different scene from just one week ago.

Trends seem to be favoring Trump now in Florida, Ohio, and Iowa.  He’s getting back into range in North Carolina and Nevada.  The 2nd District of Maine, from one of two states that splits its electoral votes, becomes another possibility for the Republican to add one additional tally.  But, Trump must take all of these entities and find one other if he is to forge a winning Electoral College majority.

Three states, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, appear as his only final state possibilities, but he leads in none of them right now.

Six polls have been fielded in PA since October 23rd, and all show a Clinton advantage, anywhere from two to eleven points.  The latest University of New Hampshire/WBUR-TV survey (10/26-30; 641 NH likely voters) gave Clinton a 46-39-6-1% advantage over Mr. Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein in the Granite State.  Finally, in Colorado, Republican polling firm, Remington Research (10/30; 1,176 CO likely voters) sees only a one point difference between the two candidates, at 45-44%, which is the Republicans’ best Centennial State showing to date.

Though these polls all suggest that each particular state is within Trump’s grasp, at least one of the latter three must fall his way in order to declare final victory next week, assuming the previously mentioned states all break his way and he retains the 23 normally Republican entities.  While closer to achieving all of this, the national map still favors Ms. Clinton even with her record low favorability rating (38:60% positive to negative according to the ABC/Washington Post survey).

Senate

Entering the final week of campaigning, we still do not have a sense as to which party will control the Senate majority next year.  Right now, it appears that Democrats look secure in 48 seats, counting holdovers, and Republicans’ 47.  Five contests remain as toss-ups.  The Democratic number includes converting Republican seats in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

If Democrats hold the Nevada Senate race (Democratic former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson)), it means they would only have to win one of the remaining four seats to re-gain the majority assuming Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are successfully elected President and Vice President.  Right now, this race continues to seesaw between the two Senate candidates.  The latest survey, from the Emerson College Polling Society (10/26-27; 550 NV likely voters), gives Republican Heck a 48-44% advantage.

North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) continues to hold a small edge over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross.  The latest released survey, from local Elon University (10/23-27; 710 NC likely voters), gives the Senator a three-point advantage, 45-42%.

Monmouth University (10/28-31; 405 MO likely voters) finds Sen. Roy Blunt (R) clinging only to a 47-46% edge over Secretary of State Jason Kander (D).  While this poll is consistent with several others, the same respondent sample gives Donald Trump a whopping 52-38% lead over Hillary Clinton.  If true, then Sen. Blunt should be ahead by a much greater margin.

Democrats appear to be forging ahead in New Hampshire (Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)), and Pennsylvania (Sen. Pat Toomey (R) opposing Katie McGinty (D)), but these races have been volatile for months and could easily snap back to produce a Republican victory next Tuesday.

House

The latest Clinton email development and the tightening of the presidential contest will likely help down ballot Republicans, as mentioned above.  This is so because Republican turnout will likely be better than feared when it appeared Ms. Clinton had virtually clinched the national campaign.

Democrats still appear poised to make some gains but should the 18 toss-up seats split 50/50, then overall GOP losses will likely fall in the dozen-seat range.  This type of result would give the Republicans a majority around the 235 mark, which is exactly in their typical range since they began winning House control back in 1994.  In the last eleven congressional terms, Republicans have controlled the House for all but four years.

With a combination of a better Republican voter turnout model and congressional district maps that favor them, the GOP will retain House control for another term.  If Ms. Clinton does become President and Democrats re-gain a small Senate majority, then divided government will continue into the next congressional session.

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  80. 確かに、結婚と妊娠の順番が逆だったら、先に気がつけたとは思いますが、こんなに嘘をつく男性です。結婚前は、わからないように取り繕っていたんだと思うな~。きっと、子どもができてもいい。と、うさぎさんが思えるほど素敵な男性を演じていたんだと思います。でも、子どもが生まれたばかりで、借金のある身で、仕事中に(!)他の女性のところに飲みに行っていた。。。ちょっとフォローできないほどのクズですよ。ご主人みたいなタイプの人って、どうやってでも借金を重ねます。そういう事に一種の才能があるというか。クレジットカードを解約しても、現金を持たせなくても、「その手があったのか!」と、ふつうの人には思いもよらない方法でお金をつくって遊びます。正直、25歳のうさぎさんには荷が重いかと。人生80年として、55年もそんな生活できますか?お子さんがいなければ、すぐにでも離婚を勧めますが。。。いや、お子さんがいるからこそ別れたほうがいいのか。。。?離婚を前提に、(絶対に二人目できちゃった~。なんてことがないようにして)何か資格をとられては?あとは、先にももよさんからのアドバイスにあった通り、へそくりが大事に一票です。きついでしょうが、すこしでも貯めたほうがいい。とにかく、御身体をお大事に。お子さんとうさぎさんが、笑顔あふれる生活ができますように、祈ってます。

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  82. Foi pena não terem partido o "focinho" ao anedótico álvaro, hoje na Covilhã que com cara de parvo alegre tentou falar com os manifestantes!Deviam ter-lhe partido o focinho e o carro que nós, os pobres, pagámos!Depois o que veio hoje a lume nas notícias sobre os famosos submarinos, também é de bradar com todas as nossas forças!Nós PAGAMOS e os almirantes levam os milhões para longe e as finanças perdoam!…MERDA, MERDA, MERDA! Esta gente TODA devia ir para a CADEIA!

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  176. *te ver*com certeza é a musica que marca a minha vida. Sempre fui louca pelo skank e meu marido então namoradado, pra me conquistar me levou a um show no canecão. Eu ainda nao tava tao interessada tto nele assim, mas foi nesse dia que olhei pra ele com outros olhos, comecei a ficar encantada. Hj temos 2 filhos e estamos juntos ha 12 anos juntos. O unico que tem um toque diferenciado é ele e qdo ele me liga é essa musica ou a regravaçao de vamos fugir q vcs fizeram que embala a sua chamada!

  177. he expected that at some point China would go into recession, calling people’s excessive faith in growth stories a “sick joke.”Japan would run into difficulty funding itself next year as demand for Japanese government bonds waned and bond yields rose further, he said.The significance of higher Japanese government bond yields was that it would cause some Japanese investors, who have been investing overseas in search of higher returns, to bring that money back home, he said.

  178. Oh and before someone comes saying "post unique stuff", alright: pirated videogames' playthroughs, endings, reviews, rants, whatever and not just in Hungarian, but in English as well. Yes, I'm from Hungary. If Hungary also got the honour system (what will probably be never gotten), I'd be in the toplist…

  179. >Tycker det är grymt fint med pasteller – speciellt grönt, äälskar grönt… Det är jättebra att det finns massa olika att välja pÃ¥ inom nagellack, har en del här hemma. Har varit smÃ¥tt besatt nu ett tag med att hitta en bra ögonskuggspalett i pastellfärger, sÃ¥ jag dog lite när jag sÃ¥g den frÃ¥n YSL – sÃ¥ vacker!

  180. What I find funny is that in the MK H2H where the 360 won, LoT was said to cater to the 360 fanboys. I remember seeing the same comment in the article about PSN posted on this site, due to the writer favoring LIVE in higher regard than PSN.Now the PS3 gets two obvious wins in the H2H and people now want to say LoT favors the PS3?Fantards really confuse me. I’m dropping the topic because trying to understand that logic will probably give me an anurism.VN:F [1.9.17_1161](from 0 votes)

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  187. Die Kritik ist ja durchaus berechtigt. Aber wie, bzw. wer soll sämtliche Fotos kontrollieren? Man hat aber jetzt die Möglichkeit, die genauen Koordinaten von Fehlern an Apple zu senden, und dann wird das ausgebessert. Ist ja schon mal ein Anfang. Anders wird man das auch nicht lösen können, oder?

  188. Brenda Bistocchi – I just want to let you know that you made my niece’s wedding very special. The pictures from begining with the dinner rehersal to the wedding and the reception were just wonderful. Thank You again for making her day so special.Brenda Bistocchi

  189. Well, this chart is pretty silly right now, but it’s unclear why: you could say that most everyone’s improving their numbers, or that most everyone’s regressing to the mean. Of the guys performing sub-par, all but Kobe are doing better, and of the 3 doing better than the mean, Wallace and Camby are doing a little bit better still and Ray Allen is doing a lot worse.

  190. Çok doğru söylüyorsun sevgili Yıldıray. Ziyaretinize çok sevindimSedefcim, sen de olursun tabi ki. İstekli olman bile yeter…Hem iyi bir anne hem de bisikletli bir anne Bakarsın o zamana kadar biz de işi ilerletip Maya’yla birlikte bisikletlerimizle geliriz Türkiyeye; hep birlikte bir bisiklet turuna çıkarız. Olmaz mı? Yter ki isteyelim Çok öpüyorum…

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  192. Ich möchte Euch auch Frohe Weihnachten wünschen! Und Glücklich Neu Jahr wo sehen wir uns wieder, immer wieder FERTIG!! Es für ein Jahr es wäre!!In den Wörter der groß Liedermacher Jose Feliciano:Feliz Navidad, Feliz Navidad,prospero año y felicidad!I want to wish you a Merry ChristmasFrom the bottom of my heart!Hab’ ich dasselbe Gefühl!:)

  193. ayant vecu a san jose/California dans un quartier latino pdt 2 ans (en 2002, ca fait un bail d’accord), je n’ai rien vu de cela. Une communaute sympatique, mais qui ne parle pas un mot d’Anglais, meme apres 10 annees de presence (les enfants ok, pas de problemes). Ils vivent entre eux et travaillent entre eux, sortant rarement de leur quartier. Vous n’avez pas du voir la meme chose que moi. Ok en Californie, on peut vivre sans parler Anglais…mais quand meme!

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  195. Vocês do CQC perderam a noção? Colocar o datena (com letra minúscula porque ele merece)? Querem afundar o programa na baixaria e mediocridade? Só pode ter sido imposição da Band, não posso acreditar que de livre e espontânea vontade meus “heróis” do CQC escolheram esse mala, grosseiro e sem educação para ocupar a bancada no lugar do brilhante Tas… Péssima escolha.

  196. Tiger has led an exceedingly contented life till his automobile accident, but that might be the end of the iceberg for the game of Golfing . For Tiger Woods, the same principle applies : ratings could spike when he plays again, but it is uncertain if they will be long-term. He desires a little time to get his mind clear and concentrated on golfing again.

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  198. Seleción natural: as xirafas desenvolveron un cuello máis longo porque as follas das árbores baixas escaseaban e por este motivo o seu cuello se alngou , é un proceso de supervivencia.Seleción artificial: elixir como vai a ser o noso can , é decir , que teña os ollos azuis, con pelo castaño claro , con arrugas …

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  201. Ana Mari disse:Boa noite, gostaria de esclarecer uma duvida, estou pensando em dividir o meu quarto com uma parede de gesso para fazer um closet,mas tenho medo pois o closet seria instalado tanto na parede de alvenaria como na parede de gesso, e não sei se esse tipo de parede suporta esse tipo de instalação.

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  205. Right. I think the pursuit of any creativity, MFA or otherwise, is a noble pursuit. I can’t rule out that I would -never- go to grad school, even now. In general I was just curious if that experience growing up made you want to better yourself and push yourself forward, which is always a pretty good reason to go onto higher learning.I’m grateful I went to college, even though I would advise most creatives to take a serious look at why they really want/need to go.

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  207. Love that pouch tutorial. I'll have to have a go at those.I intended to make some quilted wash bags but the pattern I had (in a book) wasn't very good and I don't think my machine would have handled all the layers so I gave it up. I've crocheted 2 blankets and have a third one almost done. I've also quilted a wallhanging. Other than that I've not really done anything as most of the people we get gifts probably wouldn't appreciate a handmade gift 🙁

  208. نفرین بر آن محرم نا محرمکه زهر جفا را نه در جام تو که در کام ما ریخت.آه! ای خورشید عشقای مولای جوان منچه زود غروب کردی!یا جواد الائمه ادرکنیپیشاپیش تسلیت.

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  210. / Thanks Joe! I would love to go the way of a private course but in Vegas it just isn’t going to happen. Too much money in this town for it to be affordable. I’m going to do my best to avoid the traffic jam courses from now on and pony up the extra cash to have a better outting at the higher level facilities.Thanks for the comment!!

  211. Hey, you used to write magnificent, but the last several posts have been kinda boring… I miss your super writings. Past several posts are just a bit out of track! come on!

  212. K-eM, I know what you mean, and after years of working with people, largely men, who were offended or threatened by my being straightforward even in the most gentle way, I decided it was better for me to seek work where people were not so easily offended. I found that the energy it took to constantly be couching everything I said was better spent doing something else in the world. I love Tara’s advice and I look forward to practicing it! Thank you, Tara![]

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  215. desde antes de ingresar a prestar servicio, estado intentando conseguir un cupo para cocina porque es lo que mas deseo, después de terminar el servicio sigo de nuevo intentando pero no me doy cuenta cuando es que son las inscripciones para cocina por favor les agradecería si me comunican la fechas para poder ingresar a tiempo y ser parte de esa gran oportunidad que el sena nos brinda.

  216. This is why no matter what Obama does to expand government, it will fail to fix the economy. The economy, insofar as it is healthy, is the product of voluntary choices of production, trade and consumption, emerging spontaneously through networks of exchange. No one economic actor has the information to run the economy, no matter how many “experts” he hires. The economy is in a sense more intelligent than the sum of its parts, as it coordinates through the information gathered from prices all the miraculous production and trade we see around us.

  217. et Christiane« Ensuite, ceci. Dans une démocratie, si imparfaite soit-elle, on ne fait pas de procès d’intention aux gens ; on juge des faits, des actes, des propos explicites. Dura lex sed lex. » Pour la curiosité :

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  235. The Mayor should practice what she preaches: “This is yet another frivolous lawsuit that has cost taxpayers money at a time when the City can least afford it.” Yet residents in the Heights and other areas in Houston are being forced into historic districts all while the Mayor insists on spending too much time and money ‘that has cost taxpayers money at a time when the City can least afford it’ on something the people do not want. Ultimately, this in turn will lead to ‘lawsuits that will cost taxpayers money at a time when the City can least afford it’.

  236. and not what they want it to say” applied since the moment she died and not just on stage. The one thing we discovered for ourself was a lovely young woman – whether we agreed with her ideology or not.Bravo to all, and thank you Elizabeth once again. On to another performance and community discussion.

  237. What a great studio- never too many photos! Maybe if I win Powerball tonight, we can buy a house with a room (or rooms!) that I can convert into a studio like that! Best wishes for your friend Beth. I, too, have gone through chemo and it is no fun, but I’m glad to hear that the chemo seems to be doing the trick.

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  241. MM, só mais um esclarecimento:"Lance escandalosamente 'escondido' por td a CS a desportiva e não só!"Deve ter sido por isso que o painel d'O Jogo foi unânime em considerar que o golo foi bem anulado.Estou a falr do fors-de-jogo inexistente maracado a Wolfswinkel que seguiria completamente isolado para a baliza… E não do golo (bem) anulado ao SCBraga.SL

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  243. Eh, oui, s’il n’y avait pas la liberté de la presse, il serait en effet plus simple de défendre des théories diverses. J’ai rarement vu quelqu’un avoir une position correcte et s’offusquer de la liberté. En général, quand on est contre la liberté, c’est qu’on a quelque chose à cacher…

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  247. <<MiÄ™dzy tym co mierzymy, a tym co opisujemy jako teoriÄ™ przepaść jest coraz wiÄ™ksza i zapeÅ‚niamy jÄ… coraz bardziej wyrafinowanÄ… matematykÄ….>>ZapeÅ‚niamy, bo matematyka daje nam komfort bÅ‚Ä™du. JeÅ›li coÅ› nie wyszÅ‚o z zaÅ‚ożeniami można to zwalić na dokÅ‚adność obliczeÅ„, albo napisać, że “statystycznie” siÄ™ zgadza. Kto to potem sprawdzi?

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  265. Video: 9/11 Victim To Holder: We Are Heartsick Of Theatrics That Will Take Place At KSM TrialUS Attorney General Eric Holder confronted by Alice Hoagland (9-11 family member) on his decision to bring terrorists to the U.S. for trial. Eric Holder tells her “trust me” at the end.

  266. I think they lasted a week.Before the start of vegan mofo, I was thinking I’d make a lot of desserts. In the end, I didn’t and I’m trying to be good with the stuff I did make. The Wafletorte is down to 2 pieces and I have about half the ganache left (I eat about a spoon a day).

  267. Welcome, Leanne! We’re happy to have you & glad to hear you’re enjoying yourself. Yes, yes, bookmark the recipe & anything else you find amusing. We’ve always got *something* fun going on around here. :cool

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  272. Camila! Esse é meu primeiro comentário no sue blog! Mas tenho acompanhado sempre!Todos os dias venho aqui absorver mais da sua alegria e conhecimento!Com certeza depois que conheci você e o Super Vaidosa me lanço mais nesse mundoda beleza, saúde e bem-estar! Muito obrigada por me ajudar e por compartilhar com todasas suas leitoras todos os dias o que há de melhor!Um grande beijo e sucesso cada dia mais! []

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  275. Bonjour!et merci pour ce concours. je dois avouer que ton récit m’avait totalement convaincue de me mettre au lissage brésilien moi aussi. Seul le prix m’arrête encore…Pour ma part, j’ai les cheveux longs, ni raides ni bien ondulés autrement dire une corvée pour leur donner une apparence un peu souple et lisse à chaque shampoing. Merci encore!Biz

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  291. Ballantyne et al. provide mutation estimates with about 1700 meioses. That's pretty good.I disagree.For starters, Janzen in 20009 didn't have access to Ballantyne's rates (his study is, indeed, a good one) but rather relied on older less well-designed studies.Moreover, the slowest 10 markers used by FTDNA (and, ergo, Janzen) are estimated to average just one mutation for every 8500 meiotic transfers (the 10 slowest have an average rate of less than 0.00012). Even the Ballantyne study was probably an order of magnitude too small to accurately measure those rates.VV

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  298. Anon, I was thinking the same thing. When I was stationed in Ko-Rea in 2001 we had a rash of 'white powder' responses post 9-11.Turned out they were talcum powder arrows laying out the route the hashers were to run.Now, I'm not too familiar with stateside hashers, but the Far East Korean chapter was a drinking club with a running problem.

  299. Lana Del Rey started gaining popularity in January of 2012. She’s known for her sultry voice and glamorous look. She may be old news to some, but I’ve been listening to her a fair amount this summer. She performed on SNL in January, and was harshly criticized by her performance. Nonetheless,I’m still an avid listener. On the cover of Elle On the cover of Andy Warhol’s Interview . Pop Crush  In a feature for Teen Vogue : culture milk

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